Small and stuck: Why European firms can’t scale
In 2008, the US stock market was worth $3 trillion more than the combined European stock market; in 2023, the gap was $34 trillion. This
A nascent international financial channel of China’s monetary policy transmission
China is the world’s second-largest economy, and its monetary policy can affect global demand and trade. Using granular mutual fund data, this column finds that
When statistics lie: Using satellite data to track Russia’s wartime economy
Official Russian statistics report a mild recession in 2022 following the full-scale of Ukraine but suggest that Russia has since fully recovered. This column argues
Quantifying the China discourse
Policy narratives in the US on China have undergone a dramatic transformation in recent years. This column draws on various kinds of public records and
AI feedback loops and the conditions for explosive growth
If frontier AI models can be used to develop their next models, this may lead to an ‘intelligence explosion’ and give a large boost to
Japan’s productivity transformation: From within-firm stagnation to market-driven reallocation
Discussions on Japan’s ‘lost decades’ have long focused on sluggish demand and the survival of ‘zombie’ firms. However, new evidence from microdata suggests a fundamental
Baby busts and GDP booms: Demographic change and the macroeconomy
Globally declining birth rates have, over the last seven decades, slowed population growth and raised average ages. This column argues that despite widespread economic pessimism,
Rethinking the use of quantitative easing for macro stimulus
Quantitative easing has faced recent criticism for causing large central bank losses and contributing to the post-COVID inflation, raising the question of under what conditions
The AI premium
Artificial intelligence is already reshaping the economy and society. This column analyses how AI affects firms, markets, and workers using 380 trillion tokens of realised
IMF strategy chief urges countries to maintain price stability
Christian Mumssen, the fund’s new director of strategy, cited a rapid succession of major shocks to the economy in recent years. The International Monetary Fund’s
