The different effects of oil and gas supply shocks on euro area inflation
The surge in energy prices since March 2026 has revived questions about the pass-through to consumer prices. This column argues that oil supply shocks have
The effects of geopolitical supply chain shocks on policy preferences of firms
Do geopolitical shocks to supply chains make firms retreat from globalisation? Using new survey data from 1,855 manufacturing firms in Japan, this column shows that
Capitalising on Europe’s strengths
In recent years, the European economy has shown remarkable resilience, whilst continuing to transform. This column reveals how EU firms have adapted supply chains and
A wartime labour market: The case of Ukraine
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has generated one of the largest labour supply and reallocation shocks in recent history. This column reveals,
The EU’s path to service growth and clean tech
The US is taking actions to reshore manufacturing while largely abandoning decarbonisation. This column argues that, in response, the EU should capitalise on the potential
Mortgage borrower actions dampen the impact of higher rates on monthly payments
The surge in inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic prompted many central banks to raise interest rates sharply. This column combines data from a large German
A silver lining to the European energy crisis: Energy efficiency, productivity, and potential output
The 2022 natural gas price shock triggered the largest rise in fossil fuel prices in Europe since the 1970s. This column examines the impact on
Mapping the contours of Chinese policy transmission at home and abroad
China’s place within international trade networks and global supply chains makes the propagation of Chinese shocks a global phenomenon. This column discusses the channels of
Why inflation may respond faster to big shocks: The rise of state-dependent pricing
Macroeconomic models distinguish time-dependent pricing, where firms change prices at fixed intervals, from state-dependent pricing, where firms change prices in response to changing demand or
Europe’s public finances in a warming world
Climate change is increasingly shaping macro-fiscal outlooks. Extreme weather events, chronic damages from global warming, and decarbonisation efforts all have growing implications for public finances
