In June 2016, Donald Trump justified the protectionist policies during his first administration as “the quickest way to bring our jobs back to our country”. This column shows that while the trade war with China failed to create jobs at home, it did boost employment in Brazil. Regions in the country specialised in industries targeted […]
Recent evolutions in US attitudes and policies have raised questions about the future of the dollar’s role in the global economy. This column explores a hypothetical scenario in which the world is deprived of the dollar as its global safe asset. In such a world, interest rates would be higher and more volatile. Liquidity would […]
There has been renewed interest in industrial policy as a tool to reshape the structure of economic activity, but little evidence exists on the successful design and implementation of these policies. This column examines the transformation of East Germany’s state-controlled economy after the collapse of socialism and draws valuable lessons from the experience for contemporary […]
The Phillips curve describes the relationship between inflation and real economic activity over the business cycle. This column challenges the notion that the Phillips curve is flat. Using pre-pandemic Belgian micro data, it shows that inflation responds to variations in production costs but is insensitive to variations in output. The flatness of the conventional output-gap […]
Cities are engines of economic growth and job creation, and their future pathways will shape global development outcomes for decades to come. But the success of this transformation depends on making the right investments now—investments that strengthen essential infrastructure, unlock new jobs, and build cities that are more sustainable and resilient. The charts below visualize […]
The global economy is facing heightened uncertainty, clouding economic forecasts. In our recently launched April 2025 Middle East and North Africa Economic Update , we report that growth in MENA averaged a modest 1.9% in 2024 and is forecast to accelerate moderately to 2.6% in 2025. But growth forecasts for countries across the region are shadowed in […]
Tariffs disrupt trade flows and influence prices, but their broader impact depends on how they are structured and the type of goods targeted. This column examines the economic implications of tariffs across the supply chain, with a particular focus on how different modes of retaliation to US tariffs impact economic activity, inflation, and trade. The […]
Despite signs of cautious improvement, India-China relations remain deeply strained by border tensions and mutual distrust. China-India relations, which have long been fraught, were further complicated by the 2020 military standoff on the Himalayan border. The political disruption had a significant impact on Chinese companies’ presence in India. And yet, India’s dependence on Chinese imports […]
Geopolitical issues are flooding current political and economic debate, but evidence is limited on their interplay with structural policies. Combining information on geopolitical risks and the EU cohesion policy, this column evaluates the costs of geopolitical tensions in terms of reduced effectiveness of structural funds. The results indicate that the impact of the cohesion policy […]
President Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” announced on 2 April sent shockwaves through the global economy. This column introduces the European Commission’s Spring Forecast, which depicts a resilient EU economy. Yet growth is set to remain modest, reinforcing the image of a continent buffeted by external shocks and mired in low growth. Tariffs, and even more […]
