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Economy Banking Featured Finance

Turkey sees inflation at 28.5% in 2025 with single digits by 2027, programme says

GDP growth seen at 3.3% in 2025.  Turkey’s medium-term economic programme forecasts inflation to hit 28.5% in 2025 and 16% in 2026, before reaching single digits from 2027, according to a text of the economic roadmap published in the Official Gazette on Sunday. The programme, which sets the government’s economic roadmap for the next three […]

Economy Business Featured Finance World

Gold hovers near record high ahead of US inflation data

ANZ Group raised its year-end gold price forecast on Wednesday to $3,800 per ounce and expects prices to peak near $4,000 by next June. Gold prices hovered near an all-time high on Wednesday, buoyed by expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut this month, while market participants awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on the […]

trade Economy Featured News World

The (non) effect of tariffs on manufacturing employment

The two most prominent arguments President Trump has advanced for his trade war – both during the early months of his second term, and for decades prior – are that protectionism will reduce the trade deficit and increase manufacturing employment. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump […]

Finance Banking Featured News World

Chat Bankman-Fried: An experiment on LLM ethics in finance

As large language models gain traction, it is important to ensure that decisions delegated to them comply with ethical and legal principles. This column reports on an experiment in which state-of-the-art large language models were prompted to impersonate the CEO of a fictitious financial firm needing to repay corporate debt urgently with no funds available […]

Economy Banking Featured Finance World

How to update the EU Merger Guidelines

There is a growing push from certain quarters for the European Commission to weaken merger control in order to spur greater investment and innovation, higher productivity and growth, or the creation of European champions. This column argues that there are empirical and theoretical grounds to strengthen, rather than weaken, merger control, and offers suggestions to […]

poverty Employment Featured World

How wage inequality affects the labour movement

The negative correlation between inequality and unionisation rates in the US has been extensively documented, but while the other direction of causality – the impact of inequality on the labour movement – has also been theorised, it has not been empirically tested. This column uses three distinct research settings to show how rising occupational wage […]

Climate Banking Featured World

How central bankers speak about climate and what this means for financial markets

Central banks have increasingly engaged with climate-related topics in their public communication, but little is known about the drivers and effects of this shift. This column presents a comprehensive analysis of climate-related central bank communication using a novel dataset of over 35,000 speeches from 131 central banks spanning 1986-2023. The authors find that climate communication […]

Economy Featured News World

Gender-neutral economics can no longer be the default

Economic research often treats tools such as tariffs, subsides, interest rates, monetary policy, and austerity measures as gender neutral. This column argues that when sex-disaggregated data and gender analysis are missing from models and policy decisions, the result is incomplete economic analysis and inequitable outcomes. What’s missing from economics isn’t just women’s voices, but women’s […]