In July, the European Commission fired the starting gun on the negotiations of the next Multiannual Financial Framework – the EU’s budget. Against a tough geopolitical and economic backdrop, the call to bolster Brussels’ public finances clashes with the reluctance of some member states to spend more centrally. This column outlines a possible way forward […]
Gold up 53% so far this year. Gold extended its historic rally to break above $4,000 an ounce for the first time on Wednesday, as investors piled into the safe haven to seek cover from mounting geopolitical uncertainty while betting on more U.S. interest rate cuts. Spot gold jumped 1.2% to $4,032.46 per ounce by […]
UK CPI inflation in 1975 reached 25%, a period now known as the ‘Great Inflation’. This column uses a range of empirical and narrative evidence to illustrate the importance of fiscal policy in this period. While stabilising and reducing debt has been the primary peacetime fiscal policy objective for most of modern British history, this […]
The facility will consist of USD and euro loans. VFS Global, the Zurich and Dubai headquartered provider of outsourced visa and consular services, is looking to raise the equivalent of $2 billion in term loans to refinance an existing debt and pay fees and expenses. The financing will be split in US dollar and euro […]
GCC lenders account for 30% of USD issuances by EM banks this year. Debt issuances by banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are set to remain strong through 2026 after exceeding $60 billion so far this year, Fitch Ratings said in a new report. Excluding certificates of deposit (CDs), issuances will hit $40 billion […]
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s latest forecasts show a cumulative deficit of $22.7trln from fiscal 2026 to 2035. U.S. federal budget deficits will be nearly $1 trillion higher over the next decade than projected in January by the Congressional Budget Office as a result of tax and spending legislation and tariffs, a budget […]
Low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) have rebounded strongly since the COVID-19 pandemic. Gross national income (GNI) among these countries was resilient in 2023, at $36 trillion — and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that economic growth of developing economies will hold steady at about 4 percent over the next two years. Yet LMICs face […]
Investment funds are important players in global financial markets. This column examines their behaviour and interaction with other investors during stress periods on European sovereign bond markets. It shows that investment funds are the only investor group that exhibits a distinctly procyclical behaviour by persistently selling euro periphery sovereign debt in response to euro disaster […]
Over the past two decades, many developing countries have made remarkable progress in reducing poverty, expanding access to education and health care, and investing in infrastructure. These gains were the result of sound national policies and coordinated efforts by the international community, often financed through responsible borrowing. But the road ahead looks more precarious. Debt […]
Forecasts underpinning budgetary plans have a well-documented impact on fiscal performance especially when policymakers view the world through rosy lenses. Combined with inertia in the implementation phase, optimism contributes to a possible deficit bias and the accumulation of government debt. This column introduces the new Forecast Tracker of the Secretariat of the European Fiscal Board, […]
