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Economy Featured News World

Agreed and disagreed uncertainty: Rethinking the macroeconomic impact of uncertainty

The conventional wisdom is that uncertainty leads to economic contractions, but recent evidence challenges this assumption. This column introduces two novel concepts of uncertainty – agreed and disagreed uncertainty. It shows that when uncertainty is accompanied by widespread consumer disagreement about economic conditions (disagreed uncertainty), the economy remains stable despite the elevated uncertainty. In contrast, […]

Covid-19 Business Featured World

Working from home boosted growth by expanding disability employment

Individuals with a disability have remarkably low employment rates compared to the rest of the population. This column examines whether the rapid rise in the ability to work from home post-pandemic has improved disability employment. The authors estimate that in the US working from home has already increased full-time disability employment levels by over a […]

Economy Covid-19 Featured Healthcare

The effects of fiscal aid on health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic

As governments around the world combatted COVID-19, the US witnessed unprecedented levels of funding transfers from the federal government to state and local municipalities. This column examines how the influx of federal aid affected the population’s health. Leveraging the fact that states with excess representation in Congress received more assistance than underrepresented states, the authors […]

Finance Banking Featured News

On the fragility of the nonlinear Phillips curve interpretation of recent inflation

The inflationary episode from 2021 to 2023 reignited the debate on the nonlinearity of the Phillips curve. Aggregate and city-level data indicate a non-linear relationship, with inflation accelerating rapidly when the vacancy-unemployment ratio exceeds one. This column argues that the evidence for a non-linear Phillips curve is fragile and depends on the model specification and […]