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How institutions interact with exchange rates after the 2024 US presidential election

GLOBAL BUSINESS AND FINANCE MAGAZINE
August 28, 2025
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Within minutes of the result of the 2024 US presidential election becoming clear, it triggered a global tremor in currency markets. This column investigates how institutional quality shaped currency responses to the election, using high-frequency exchange rate data for 73 countries. Virtually all currencies depreciated against the dollar immediately following the election result, which markets […]

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Under pressure? Central bank independence meets blockchain prediction markets

GLOBAL BUSINESS AND FINANCE MAGAZINE
July 29, 2025
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The independence of monetary authorities from political interference is a foundational principle of modern central banking, and understanding whether threats to this independence affect expectations and beliefs is important. This column uses data from the Polymarket platform, where users trade on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and possible replacement of Chair Powell, to examine how […]