How early academic rank shapes high school choices and admissions

Students with the same test score can have considerably different academic ranks depending on their school peers. Using data from the Mexico City metropolitan area, this column examines how differences in relative academic ranks in elementary school affect later cognitive and noncognitive outcomes. Among students with similar third-grade scores, those with higher academic ranks performed better on their high school admission exams. The early ranks also shaped college aspirations and academic self-perceptions. Early academic ranks can be particularly consequential for students with fewer socioeconomic resources.

Students’ test scores are typically used to measure academic achievement, informing educational decisions, policy evaluation, and research. However, since the achievement distribution can vary across school cohorts, students with the same test score can have considerably different academic rank within the achievement distribution of their peers. Because students learn and share their school time with other students, they may evaluate their own performance relative to others. It is also possible that students’ rank in their cohort affects the resources they receive. Therefore, their relative academic position is a potentially consequential feature of their educational environment. 

A growing literature shows that students’ academic rank among their peers can shape later outcomes (for example, Elsner and Isphording 2017, Murphy and Weinhardt 2020, Delaney and Devereux 2021, Denning et al. 2023; for a discussion of the early literature, see Devereux and Delaney 2022). Building on this research, our new study follows students in the Mexico City metropolitan area from third grade through the transition to high school (Chang et al. 2026). In this context, we compare students who performed similarly in third grade but had different academic rank positions within their third-grade elementary school cohorts. Then, we examine how those differences in early academic ranks affect students’ later cognitive and noncognitive outcomes. 

During our study period, students seeking admission to public high schools in the Mexico City metropolitan area participated in COMIPEMS, a centralised assignment system. In this setting, students submitted ordered lists of preferred high school options and took an admission exam. High school assignments were based on the combination of students’ high school preferences, their admission exam score, and the seats available at each school. Because preferences, exam performance, and assignments are observed separately, we are able to examine distinct stages of the transition to high school. 

To examine how early academic rank affects later outcomes, we construct measures of third-grade academic rank within the same school year, for each subject (math and reading). Because test-score distributions differ across school cohorts and subjects, students with the same third-grade standardised test score in a subject can rank differently, depending on how their peers perform. We use this variation to distinguish the effect of rank from absolute achievement, while flexibly controlling for students’ own scores and school-level achievement distributions.

Effect of early academic rank on the high school admission exam

Our results indicate that, among students who performed equally well in third grade, those with higher academic rank in their third-grade school cohort achieved substantially higher scores on the high school admission exam. Moving from the median to the top 5% of the school-cohort rank distribution raises performance on the admission exam by approximately one-third of a standard deviation. Moreover, the relationship is nonlinear, since estimated effects are slightly negative and relatively flat below the median, but they become positive and increase sharply near the top of the distribution (Figure 1). 

Figure 1 Estimated effects of third-grade school-cohort rank on the high school admission exam

Notes: The figure shows estimated coefficients and 95% confidence intervals. All estimates are relative to the 46–50th percentiles.

These effects on high school admission test scores are large enough to affect students’ high school placement. To illustrate these consequences, we conduct a counterfactual exercise. We consider students in the 46th–50th percentiles of the third-grade cohort rank distribution and ask how their high school assignments would change if they had instead ranked in the 76th–80th percentiles in third grade. Under this counterfactual, we find that about 11% would have been assigned to a school they had ranked higher on their preference list.

To examine potential heterogeneous effects for students from different socioeconomic backgrounds, we use two proxies for socioeconomic disadvantages: we consider maternal educational attainment of middle school or less and the elementary school-level share of students receiving Progresa, a conditional cash transfer programme for low-income households. The point estimates at the top of the third-grade school-cohort rank distribution are larger for students whose mothers completed middle school or less and for those attending elementary schools with higher shares of Progresa recipients. These patterns suggest that high academic rank in third grade can be particularly consequential for students with fewer socioeconomic resources (Figure 2).

Figure 2 Heterogeneous effects by socioeconomic background

(a) Maternal education

(b) Share of Progresa beneficiaries

Notes: The figure shows estimated coefficients and 95% confidence intervals. All estimates are relative to the 46–50th percentiles.

Interestingly, in schools with more than one third-grade classroom, students’ academic rank in their classroom can be different from their academic rank among all third graders in the school (i.e. school-cohort rank). When we consider the two rank measures together, our analysis suggests that among students with the same school-cohort rank, those who rank higher within their classroom also tend to perform better on the high school admission exam. This suggests that both the immediate classroom and the school cohort can be relevant comparison groups.

Beyond exam performance: School preferences, academic aspirations, and other outcomes

We also study whether early academic rank affects students’ educational preferences, academic aspirations, classroom responsibility, learning strategies, and attitudes in teamwork. These outcomes are important on their own and may also shed light on why differences associated with early rank can persist over time. We examine the effects of early rank on these self-reported measures collected in ninth grade, before students took the high school admission exam.

We first examine two dimensions of students’ educational preferences and aspirations: the selectivity of the high school they ranked as their top choice and whether they reported wanting to attend college. During our study period, applicants seeking admission to public high schools in the Mexico City metropolitan area submitted lists of up to 20 schools, ranked in order of preference. Because the admission system was designed so that students could not benefit from strategically misrepresenting their preferences, the schools they listed and the order in which they ranked them are likely to reflect their preferences over schools.

We find that a student’s third-grade school-cohort rank significantly affects both the type of high school they aim to attend and their longer-term educational aspirations. A higher academic rank in third grade leads students to list more selective high schools (proxied considering the schools’ historical admission cut-offs) as their top choice and increases the likelihood that they report wanting to attend college. In both cases, the effects are particularly pronounced for students near the top of the rank distribution relative to those around the median (Figure 3). 

Figure 3 Estimated effects on students’ aspirations

(a) Aspire to attend college

(b) Avgerage cut-off score of top high school choice

Notes: The figure shows estimated coefficients and 95% confidence intervals. All estimates are relative to the 46–50th percentiles.

Because students submitted their preference lists and reported their college aspirations before taking the exam, neither outcome can reflect a response to a particularly high admission-exam score. These results and our estimates of how early academic rank affects performance on the high school admission exam suggest that rank can influence the admissions process through both the schools that the students pursue and the scores with which they compete for admission.

Early academic rank also leads to differences in students’ self-perceptions and attitudes toward school. By ninth grade, students who ranked higher academically in third grade are more likely to describe themselves as hardworking, persistent, and careful in completing their schoolwork. They also report greater participation in class, more timely submission of assignments, stronger planning and organisational skills, and more constructive attitudes toward teamwork. These findings indicate that the effects of early academic rank extend to attitudes and behaviours that may also be relevant for later academic performance.

Main takeaways

In the Mexico City metropolitan area, we find that among students with similar third-grade achievement, their early academic rank affects their performance on a high school admission exam and the selectivity of the schools they seek to attend. It also shapes their college aspirations, academic self-perceptions, and self-reported attitudes toward school. In addition, evidence from schools with multiple third-grade classrooms suggests that both the immediate classroom and the broader school cohort may serve as relevant comparison groups.

Source : VOXeu