The global growth slowdown is bad news for trust in government
GDP growth appears to be on a global slowdown. This column uses survey data from individuals across 161 countries since 1990 and data for the
Lumpy forecasts: Rational inaction in professional forecasting
Forecasts from professionals (economists, analysts, brokers, academics) are a key input into economic decision-making. This column highlights that professional forecasts are ‘lumpy’, often remaining unchanged
Tariffs, the dollar, and equities: High-frequency evidence from the Liberation Day announcement
On 2 April 2025, the US announced tariffs on most of its trading partners, creating a major trade policy shock to the world economy. This
Measurement errors and missing inflation persistence before World War I
Economic historians widely acknowledge that historical price data are measured with error. This column collects pre-WWI inflation data from 15 countries and uses instrumental variables
Managing credit in dollarised economies: The effective but asymmetric effects of foreign currency reserve requirements
Emerging markets with partially dollarised financial systems are particularly vulnerable to global financial cycles. This column examines how reserve requirements on foreign currency deposits can
The economics of climate adaptation: From academic insights to effective policy
Adapting to climate change – finding ways to prevent the harshest effects or deal with crises when they occur – is a first-order issue. But
On the fragility of the nonlinear Phillips curve interpretation of recent inflation
The inflationary episode from 2021 to 2023 reignited the debate on the nonlinearity of the Phillips curve. Aggregate and city-level data indicate a non-linear relationship,
Use it or lose it: How cognitive skills change with age
Cognitive skills are commonly assumed to begin deteriorating from the age of 30, which could pose a significant challenge for rapidly ageing populations. But this
Partisan politics and global supply chains: How CEO political alignment shapes trade decisions
Against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and rapidly shifting global alliances, policymakers are advocating strategies such as ‘friendshoring’ to safeguard supply chain resilience. This
International trade suppression and the demand for US Treasuries
The trade war launched by the Trump administration follows a longer-term pattern of geo-economic fragmentation, but it dwarfs all prior expectations. This column looks beyond
