How much research talent could Europe grab from the US?
The policies of the Trump administration have put the research environment in the United States under pressure. Public research funding cuts, hostility towards academic freedom,
Human capital formation as a key component in Europe’s defence build-up
Government spending on defence, particularly defence R&D, can have significant economic spillovers. This column argues that the forthcoming European defence build-up must include a long-term
Exchange rate uncertainty, tariff hikes, and adjustment costs
The recent shift in trade policy by the new US administration is impacting global trade and creating volatility in financial markets. This column quantifies the
Recent trade policy actions: Insights from multiple models
Recent tariff measures by the US and countermeasures by its trading partners have dominated global policy debates. Using three economic models, this column shows how
Big news missing the big picture: Stock market performance in the news
The performance of stock markets often appears worse in the daily news than it actually is. This column argues that this negative news bias arises
Working from home boosted growth by expanding disability employment
Individuals with a disability have remarkably low employment rates compared to the rest of the population. This column examines whether the rapid rise in the
Gold rises as Fed flags economic uncertainty; Sino-US trade talks in focus
Gold climbed on Thursday after the Federal Reserve warned of rising inflation and labor market risks fuelling economic uncertainty, while investors awaited the outcome of
Roaring tariffs: The global impact of the 2025 US trade war
Sweeping US tariff increases in 2025 are upending global trade. This column draws on new data and simulations to show that, even with partial suspensions,
Avoiding Kindleberger’s trap: A dollar coalition of the willing
In the event of dysfunction in dollar funding markets, the Federal Reserve can supply liquidity through standing central bank swaps. This column considers a scenario
Redirecting Chinese exports from the US: Evidence on trade deflection from the first US-China trade war
With the prospect of far-reaching decoupling of goods trade between China and the US, fears of deflection of Chinese exports to third markets have returned.
