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World Business trade

Recent trade policy actions: Insights from multiple models

Recent tariff measures by the US and countermeasures by its trading partners have dominated global policy debates. Using three economic models, this column shows how the tariffs impact trade flows, output, and welfare, especially in North America and China. In the short term, tariffs act as negative supply shocks for tariffing countries (depressing output while […]

Finance Banking Featured media World

Big news missing the big picture: Stock market performance in the news

The performance of stock markets often appears worse in the daily news than it actually is. This column argues that this negative news bias arises from two factors: (1) journalists tend to focus on major events, and (2) the daily performance of stock market indices is negatively skewed. It shows that about half of the […]

Covid-19 Business Featured World

Working from home boosted growth by expanding disability employment

Individuals with a disability have remarkably low employment rates compared to the rest of the population. This column examines whether the rapid rise in the ability to work from home post-pandemic has improved disability employment. The authors estimate that in the US working from home has already increased full-time disability employment levels by over a […]

Featured Banking Economy Finance

Gold rises as Fed flags economic uncertainty; Sino-US trade talks in focus

Gold climbed on Thursday after the Federal Reserve warned of rising inflation and labor market risks fuelling economic uncertainty, while investors awaited the outcome of the U.S.-China trade talks this weekend. Spot gold rose 1.4% to $3,409.76 an ounce, as of 0223 GMT. U.S. gold futures firmed 0.7% to $3,416.70. “I think it’s mostly a […]

News Featured World

Roaring tariffs: The global impact of the 2025 US trade war

Sweeping US tariff increases in 2025 are upending global trade. This column draws on new data and simulations to show that, even with partial suspensions, the measures are set to trigger sharp contractions in trade, significant welfare losses (especially for the US), and major disruptions to global supply chains. Direct trade between the US and […]

Banking Featured Finance World

Avoiding Kindleberger’s trap: A dollar coalition of the willing

In the event of dysfunction in dollar funding markets, the Federal Reserve can supply liquidity through standing central bank swaps. This column considers a scenario in which the Fed declines to extend such credit. It argues that 14 major central banks hold roughly $1.9 trillion in US safe assets. They could form a dollar coalition […]

World Featured News trade

Redirecting Chinese exports from the US: Evidence on trade deflection from the first US-China trade war

With the prospect of far-reaching decoupling of goods trade between China and the US, fears of deflection of Chinese exports to third markets have returned. This column examines the factual record on the frequency of, and foreign government response to, Chinese trade deflection during the first US-China trade war. The authors find that trade deflection […]