In 2025, the US government announced a series of tariff increases targeting major trading partners, including Canada, China, and Mexico. This column estimates the economic consequences of these proposed tariffs to the US and globally. According to this model, real wages in the US decline by 1.4% in 2028 and GDP falls by approximately 1%, […]
Recent evolutions in US attitudes and policies have raised questions about the future of the dollar’s role in the global economy. This column explores a hypothetical scenario in which the world is deprived of the dollar as its global safe asset. In such a world, interest rates would be higher and more volatile. Liquidity would […]
A 2018 Vox column examined the geopolitical premium enjoyed by the US thanks to its security alliances and ‘dollar diplomacy’. This column, written by one of the original authors, suggests that in light of recent moves by the Trump administration, it is timely to recall the earlier conclusions that countries that rely on the US […]
