Ripples presaging a financial tsunami
Loss of confidence in the US dollar’s reserve currency status could trigger a collapse of the US Treasury market and international financial fragmentation. This column
GCC bank debt issuances top $60bln in 2025, to remain strong in 2026: Fitch
GCC lenders account for 30% of USD issuances by EM banks this year. Debt issuances by banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are set
Tariffs and US dollar depreciations: Not so surprising after all
To many, the US dollar depreciation following the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement on 2 April 2025 defied conventional wisdom. However, open-macro models predict that the
Recent patterns in global risk behaviour in financial markets
Following the US tariff announcements in early April, the US dollar strongly depreciated while US Treasury yields rose. This column zooms in on the April
The battle for trade currency dominance: The dollar vs the renminbi in Argentina
The US dollar has traditionally dominated the invoicing of international trade. But could other currencies one day replace it? This column examines a unique policy
Rethinking exchange rate flexibility in the post-Bretton Woods era: Evidence from a new index
The collapse of the Bretton Woods system has traditionally been cited as heralding a major shift towards floating exchange rates. The extent of this transition
The 2025 trade war: Dynamic impacts across US states and the global economy
In 2025, the US government announced a series of tariff increases targeting major trading partners, including Canada, China, and Mexico. This column estimates the economic
A world with no safe assets
Recent evolutions in US attitudes and policies have raised questions about the future of the dollar’s role in the global economy. This column explores a
Mars or Mercury rebooted: The Trump administration, the dollar, and the geopolitics of international currency choice
A 2018 Vox column examined the geopolitical premium enjoyed by the US thanks to its security alliances and ‘dollar diplomacy’. This column, written by one
