Loss of confidence in the US dollar’s reserve currency status could trigger a collapse of the US Treasury market and international financial fragmentation. This column argues that hedging is a rational response to recent fluctuations in the US dollar, as investors look to insure against exchange rate risks. However, widespread hedging itself makes Treasuries less […]
GCC lenders account for 30% of USD issuances by EM banks this year. Debt issuances by banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are set to remain strong through 2026 after exceeding $60 billion so far this year, Fitch Ratings said in a new report. Excluding certificates of deposit (CDs), issuances will hit $40 billion […]
To many, the US dollar depreciation following the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement on 2 April 2025 defied conventional wisdom. However, open-macro models predict that the impact of tariffs on exchange rates depends on how trade partners respond. Accounting for retaliatory threats, this column explores the effects of tariffs on the US dollar by revisiting the […]
Following the US tariff announcements in early April, the US dollar strongly depreciated while US Treasury yields rose. This column zooms in on the April episode, analysing the co-movement of asset prices with an estimated market ‘safe-haven factor’. It shows that the co-movement of the US dollar with the ‘safe-haven factor’ changed in April, and […]
The US dollar has traditionally dominated the invoicing of international trade. But could other currencies one day replace it? This column examines a unique policy experiment in Argentina in 2023. Amid a severe dollar shortage, Argentina expanded its currency swap agreement with the People’s Bank of China. The share of imports from China invoiced in […]
The collapse of the Bretton Woods system has traditionally been cited as heralding a major shift towards floating exchange rates. The extent of this transition has recently been challenged. This column introduces a new index of global exchange rate fixity which is invariant to country boundaries and accounts for indirect relationships. It finds that global […]
In 2025, the US government announced a series of tariff increases targeting major trading partners, including Canada, China, and Mexico. This column estimates the economic consequences of these proposed tariffs to the US and globally. According to this model, real wages in the US decline by 1.4% in 2028 and GDP falls by approximately 1%, […]
Recent evolutions in US attitudes and policies have raised questions about the future of the dollar’s role in the global economy. This column explores a hypothetical scenario in which the world is deprived of the dollar as its global safe asset. In such a world, interest rates would be higher and more volatile. Liquidity would […]
A 2018 Vox column examined the geopolitical premium enjoyed by the US thanks to its security alliances and ‘dollar diplomacy’. This column, written by one of the original authors, suggests that in light of recent moves by the Trump administration, it is timely to recall the earlier conclusions that countries that rely on the US […]
