Can entire markets strategically confuse consumers to raise prices? This column tracks the prices of nearly all mobile phone tariffs and handsets in the UK from 2010 to 2012, and finds that quality-adjusted prices rise in the early part of the sample period and decline later. Obfuscation strategies by firms appear to be the primary […]
In 2025, the US government underwent a large fiscal switch, with Congress enacting large income tax cuts and the second Trump administration putting new tariffs on goods at levels not seen in the US since the Great Depression. This column evaluates tariffs as a broad tool of fiscal policy, reviewing both tax policy and macroeconomic […]
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs accounted for perhaps 30-40 basis points of the latest core inflation reading of 2.9% but the effect should be “relatively short-lived”. U.S. companies and consumers are bearing the brunt of the country’s new import tariffs, early indications show, contradicting assertions by President Donald Trump and complicating the Federal Reserve’s […]
Aussie slides as investors flock to safe-havens, yen strenghtens. The Australian dollar tumbled on Tuesday, while the safe-haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen strengthened as renewed signs of strains in U.S.-China trade relations dented risk sentiment and left investors ducking for cover. Trade and tariffs have been the main focus since dramatic market moves on […]
There is general agreement that a currency’s safe-haven status can be gauged by its response to changes in financial volatility. This column documents how, in the months following the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” announcement, the dollar switched from rising during periods of market volatility to falling, and thus appeared to switch from a safe-haven to […]
The new Trumpian tariffs are not the familiar protectionism G7 nations have applied for decades. Instead of shielding particular sectors, they wall off the entire American goods-producing economy from foreign competition. This is precisely the logic of 20th-century import substitution industrialisation – a strategy widely tried, and widely abandoned, because it raised costs, bred inefficiency, […]
The two most prominent arguments President Trump has advanced for his trade war – both during the early months of his second term, and for decades prior – are that protectionism will reduce the trade deficit and increase manufacturing employment. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump […]
Industrial policy is increasingly implemented worldwide, with many policymakers and researchers highlighting its benefits. However, the cost of industrial policy remains less understood. Using Chinese firm-level data, this column shows that higher industrial subsidies raise the likelihood and severity of foreign anti-dumping and countervailing duties at each investigation stage. These retaliatory tariffs wipe out roughly […]
Euro zone business activity expanded in August, PMIs show. European stock markets fell slightly in early trading on Thursday, hovering just below recent highs, as traders avoided making big moves and waited for the Federal Reserve’s three-day annual Jackson Hole symposium. Jackson Hole starts on Thursday and focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s […]
The US trade deficits will have to be reduced materially to prevent a crisis down the road. This column argues that fiscal consolidation, in association with a weaker dollar, appears to be the right way for the US to improve its trade balance. In addition, the US should pursue an outcome in which there is […]
