US stock markets fell in response to the announcement of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs until the tariffs were paused a few days later. This column shows that the stocks of firms headquartered in counties that tend to vote Republican, and stock indexes for industries with more firms headquartered in ‘redder’ counties, fell more than […]
Most stock markets in the Gulf ended lower on Monday, pressured by weak oil prices, while investors awaited more corporate earnings reports. Oil prices – a catalyst for the Gulf’s financial markets – dipped, pressured by worries over a global glut as U.S.-China trade tensions added to concerns about an economic slowdown and weaker energy […]
The U.S. stock market’s bull run is almost three years old, but if history is a guide, that would make it only middle-aged. The S&P 500 has set a series of record highs in the lead-up to Sunday’s anniversary of the start of the bull market on October 12, 2022. On that date three years ago, […]
The launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 marked a turning point in how firms and investors view generative artificial intelligence. This column measures the extent and tone of firms’ discussions of GenAI in earnings calls, and finds that early engagement with AI topics boosted stock market performance beyond the immediate impact on expected earnings. The […]
Euro zone business activity expanded in August, PMIs show. European stock markets fell slightly in early trading on Thursday, hovering just below recent highs, as traders avoided making big moves and waited for the Federal Reserve’s three-day annual Jackson Hole symposium. Jackson Hole starts on Thursday and focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s […]
The causes and consequences of income and wealth inequality are central concerns in economic research and policy discussions. This column presents findings from the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances on the state of US economic inequality. Three key patterns emerge: wealth remains highly concentrated, younger generations are accumulating less wealth than their predecessors, and wealth […]
The performance of stock markets often appears worse in the daily news than it actually is. This column argues that this negative news bias arises from two factors: (1) journalists tend to focus on major events, and (2) the daily performance of stock market indices is negatively skewed. It shows that about half of the […]
The recent global rise in prices has renewed interest in the distributional effects of the Fisherian debt-inflation channel, and its impact on firms’ activities. This column examines this channel using a novel high-frequency identification strategy that analyses firms’ stock market returns around inflation announcement dates. It finds that, following positive inflation surprises, firms with higher […]
