The two most prominent arguments President Trump has advanced for his trade war – both during the early months of his second term, and for decades prior – are that protectionism will reduce the trade deficit and increase manufacturing employment. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump […]
Euro zone business activity expanded in August, PMIs show. European stock markets fell slightly in early trading on Thursday, hovering just below recent highs, as traders avoided making big moves and waited for the Federal Reserve’s three-day annual Jackson Hole symposium. Jackson Hole starts on Thursday and focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s […]
Since 2013, synthetic opioid overdoses have surged in the US, claiming over 70,000 lives each year. This crisis has had international spillovers, reigniting drug-related violence in Mexico, where a new wave of cartel warfare erupted after 2013. This column shows that the geography of this second wave is closely tied to fentanyl trafficking routes. Exploiting […]
Yen sinks, Bank of Japan signals no hurry to resume rate hikes. The dollar headed for its strongest weekly performance in almost three years against other major currencies, maintaining momentum on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed new tariff rates on dozens of trade partners. Some of the currencies of the countries that were […]
Investors weigh impact from Trump threats over Russian oil. Oil prices were little changed on Friday and heading for a weekly gain as investors weighed the impact of further tariffs and sanctions by U.S. President Donald Trump. Brent crude futures were down 35 cents, or 0.49%, at $71.35 a barrel by 1039 GMT. U.S. West […]
The tariff framework will apply broadly to EU exports, except for steel and aluminium, the official said. The 15% rate will also apply to cars and car parts, with no quotas or limits. The 15% tariff that European Union goods face when entering the United States is all-inclusive, unlike the deals some other countries have […]
Trump’s threats come amid renewed concerns about oil demand and some analysts expect faltering economic growth in the second half of the year Oil slipped about 1% on Tuesday as rising OPEC+ supply and worries of weaker global demand countered concern about U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to India over its Russian oil purchases. The […]
Investment funds are important players in global financial markets. This column examines their behaviour and interaction with other investors during stress periods on European sovereign bond markets. It shows that investment funds are the only investor group that exhibits a distinctly procyclical behaviour by persistently selling euro periphery sovereign debt in response to euro disaster […]
The administration of President Donald Trump said on Thursday it has identified 16 potential sites on U.S. Department of Energy lands where data centers and power plants supporting the boom in artificial intelligence can be developed. WHY IT’S IMPORTANT Rapid growth in AI is leading to the first boom in U.S. power demand for two decades sending Big Tech and […]
On 2 April 2025, the US announced tariffs on most of its trading partners, creating a major trade policy shock to the world economy. This column shows that the US dollar depreciated on impact, rather than appreciating as expected based on standard theory and prior evidence. The authors argue that this unusual transmission impact of […]
