Barclays sees no further ECB rate cuts before end-2026 after policy decision
The ECB kept interest rates steady at 2% for the third meeting in a row. Barclays revised its forecast for the European Central Bank’s rate
Gold gains on US interest rate expectations
Investors have their eyes on other news, including ADP U.S. employment data and ISM PMIs this week, for indicators that could alter the Fed’s hawkish
When debt perceptions shape fiscal futures
Voters fear debt, but they do not understand it. Using data across 13 countries, this column shows that most people dramatically misjudge debt levels and
Dutch households spend less of their income on fixed and necessary expenditures
Households with high fixed and necessary expenditures relative to income are more vulnerable to income shocks. This column examines fixed and necessary expenditures for middle-income
Overcoming the middle-income trap: Why institutions matter
Many middle-income countries (MICs) aspire to achieve high-income status, yet only a few succeed. Since 1990, just 34 countries have made this transition. Today, 108 nations
Strengthening governance and trust in AI-based data dissemination with Proof-Carrying Numbers
As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes a new gateway to development data, a quiet but significant risk has emerged. Large language models (LLMs) can now summarize
The impact of interest: How loan rates shape firm investment
Monetary policy moves aggregate investment, but the underlying drivers remain unclear. This column opens the black box with a German firm survey. A one percentage
Geopolitical tensions and international financial fragmentation: The 28th Geneva Report on the World Economy
Rising geopolitical tensions now threaten the rules-based world order that has governed the functioning of the international monetary system since WWII with risks of geoeconomic
The missing link: Why economic policy needs organisational economics
Europe faces slowing growth, ageing populations, and structural shifts. This column discusses how organisational economics can illuminate the impact of structural forces on Europe and
Dollar rallies as US shutdown drags on, weighing on confidence
The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.3% to as much as 98.91 The U.S. dollar rose
