A key debate surrounding export controls is whether they accelerate innovation in targeted rivals. This column studies this question using a set of US export controls, the 2007 ‘China Rule’, by comparing sanctioned goods with goods just excluded from the policy. It finds that the policy reduced Chinese imports of restricted goods. It also finds […]
Europe’s reliance on US arms raises autonomy concerns, as security worsens and leaders aim to cut strategic and technological dependence. Worries about Europe’s dependence on the United States military industrial base have increased with the worsening security situation in Europe and the deterioration of the transatlantic relationship. With a new dataset covering all US foreign […]
How states leverage sovereign debt to support their military endeavours has been examined thoroughly, but the relationship between private finance and armed conflict remains underexplored. Using data on loans by creditors to firms in 179 countries over 1989–2020, this column documents how foreign banks reduce overall lending relative to domestic banks during violent conflicts but […]
Government spending on defence, particularly defence R&D, can have significant economic spillovers. This column argues that the forthcoming European defence build-up must include a long-term strategy to develop high-quality human capital. Military human capital development serves a dual-purpose role: it is crucial for the modern (largely non-combat) battlefield, and also valuable for long-run productivity growth. […]
