Navigating geoeconomic risk in the US stock market
Geoeconomic risk has become a first-order concern for investors. This column shows that domestic US stocks expose investors to substantial geoeconomic risk through firms’ global
Training novices to think in the age of large language models
Whether teaching a cognitive skill remains valuable in this era of AI is a crucial question in education and for firms. This column reports on
Building resilience to global financial shocks in emerging markets
Emerging markets are vulnerable to sudden shifts in investor sentiment, which can lead to pressure on exchange rates and financing conditions. Using panel evidence from
Anatomy of a rise: Monetary policy and the post-Covid surge in long-term interest rates
The sharp rise in long-term interest rates since 2020 is difficult to explain from slow-moving fundamentals. This column shows that narrow windows around nonfarm payroll
How currency hedging moves exchange rates
Foreign investors’ growing holdings of dollar-denominated bonds have created a large demand to hedge dollar risk. Using outstanding FX forward and swap positions for seven
After Credit Suisse, markets find bail-in less credible
When Credit Suisse failed in March 2023, Swiss authorities, against market expectations, set aside the resolution plan and arranged a UBS takeover backed by public
Oil surges, stocks tumble as Trump declares Iran MOU ‘over’
Samsung slides for a second session amid earnings worries. Oil surged by more than 5% on Wednesday and global stocks and bond prices tumbled, as
When France’s Légion d’honneur awards move stock prices: A market signal of political access
State honours are designed as symbols of merit and public recognition. But they may also convey information with economic value. This column explores the market
When central banks over-deliver, markets listen differently
Financial markets pay close attention to monetary policy, and surprise policy decisions can strongly affect asset prices and the real economy. This column shows that
Private capital markets and inequality
Private capital markets have expanded rapidly, but access remains concentrated among wealthy investors. This column presents new evidence from the US which shows that high-net-worth
