There is currently much discussion about President Trump’s tariffs, the US trade deficit, and its causes and impacts, but little in the way of economic modelling to inform the discussion. This column uses a theoretical model of international trade to demonstrate that the US trade deficit might be regarded as the consequence of rational market […]
It is well established that exporters tend to be some of the most productive firms. But in today’s world, exporters typically rely strongly on other firms in their supply network. This columns uses data on the domestic supply chains of Dutch exporters to investigate whether domestic suppliers to exporting firms are more productive than firms […]
When the Trump administration pledged to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on countries with “unfair” trade practices, trade economists scrambled to determine what such tariffs might look like. But modelling any tariff-based intervention requires reliable data on what countries actually impose, and this column argues that the tariff data we rely on are incomplete and often wrong. […]
Implementation of the “Liberation Day” tariffs on the US’ trading partners would have far-reaching consequences for international trade patterns and the US and global economies. This column models the effects of an unanticipated permanent unilateral tariff imposed by the US and an assumed equal reaction on the part of the rest of the world. The […]
Adapting to climate change – finding ways to prevent the harshest effects or deal with crises when they occur – is a first-order issue. But research on the economics of adaptation has offered little guidance for policy. This column reviews the existing literature on adaptation and considers how it can more directly inform policy design […]
Over the past decade, China has shifted towards greater self-reliance while enhancing its export competitiveness in advanced economy markets. This column introduces a new index to assess sectoral trade alignment across countries. China is importing fewer goods typically exported by advanced economies, while its exports increasingly resemble their import needs. This shift is intensifying competition […]
