When France’s Légion d’honneur awards move stock prices: A market signal of political access
State honours are designed as symbols of merit and public recognition. But they may also convey information with economic value. This column explores the market
The perceived inflation wedge: Why households experience inflation differently from official statistics
Households often report inflation perceptions and expectations that differ markedly from official measures. This column proposes a new measure of perceived inflation, which uses disaggregated
When central banks over-deliver, markets listen differently
Financial markets pay close attention to monetary policy, and surprise policy decisions can strongly affect asset prices and the real economy. This column shows that
The inefficient pricing of news
The main obstacle to market efficiency is whether investors can read, process, and quickly extract genuinely new information from articles. This column uses large language
The market value of non-degree credentials: New evidence from 37 million US workers
Non-degree credentials are rapidly multiplying as alternatives to traditional higher education, but in a largely unregulated market. This column draws on nearly 40 million US
Forecasting inflation: The sum of the cycles outperforms the whole
Inflation reflects forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to slow-moving structural trends. Yet most forecasting models treat inflation as a single aggregate process.
Why information campaigns may backfire: Voter heterogeneity and network effects
Political information campaigns that perform well in focus groups and pilot studies may backfire when applied at scale. This column uses a field experiment in
Rerouted, not reduced: How withholding taxes shape global services trade
Global services trade is expanding rapidly, but its intangible nature makes it a prime channel for profit shifting, prompting many countries to apply withholding taxes.
Experiential learning in the age of AI
Kolb’s learning cycle experience, reflection, insight, and experimentation remains deeply relevant in a data-driven environment. Artificial intelligence has entered the workplace not as a distant
Rational inattention and information provision experiments
Surveys with information provision experiments have become popular in economics. This column introduces an information provision experiment in a model of rational inattention – where
