How real-time data misled policymakers during the post-COVID recovery
Preliminary data releases can diverge significantly from subsequently revised figures, complicating economic policy decisions made in real time. This column shows how real-time GDP releases
Understanding inflation with textual analysis: How news about commodities improves predictions
Commodity prices have historically been considered leading indicators of inflation, but the relationship has weakened since the mid-1980s, making them less reliable predictors. This column
The return of inflation: Why ‘look through’ can backfire under incomplete information
Central banks facing post-pandemic inflation often considered ‘looking through’ supply shocks. Using a New Keynesian framework in which agents gradually learn whether a cost-push shock
Gulf central banks cut key interest rates following Fed move
The Fed cut its rate by a quarter of a percentage point, in a move that won support from most of President Donald Trump’s central
Dollar regains some ground, still heading for weekly drop
Sterling traded at $1.3545, slipping 0.2% after data showed the British economy stagnated in July. The dollar inched higher on Friday after falling the day
Sri Lanka economy reports 4.9% growth in second quarter
Sri Lanka’s agriculture sector grew by 2% in the second quarter from a year earlier. Sri Lanka’s economy grew 4.9% year-on-year in the second quarter
Oil holds steady as investors assess attacks on Russian energy facilities
Oil also received some support from solid refinery demand in China last month and a decline in US crude inventories. Oil prices were little changed
Dollar firm as geopolitics heat up; investors await US inflation data
The data did not offer much insight into job creation since March, leaving U.S. rate expectations unchanged for now. The dollar held steady on Wednesday
Prudential instruments and the recent inflationary episode
Since the Global Crisis, prudential instruments to address financial stability concerns have been enhanced and broadly adopted across countries. Using the recently updated International Banking
European stocks fall, dollar steady, traders wait for Jackson Hole
Euro zone business activity expanded in August, PMIs show. European stock markets fell slightly in early trading on Thursday, hovering just below recent highs, as
