GDP growth seen at 3.3% in 2025. Turkey’s medium-term economic programme forecasts inflation to hit 28.5% in 2025 and 16% in 2026, before reaching single digits from 2027, according to a text of the economic roadmap published in the Official Gazette on Sunday. The programme, which sets the government’s economic roadmap for the next three […]
History suggests that using lax monetary policy and a weaker currency to address debt sustainability is a dangerous game. This column revisits a unique early experiment with a managed float of state-issued money in Venice between 1619 and 1666. Newly digitised exchange rate data show that even for a government with a strong fiscal reputation, […]
Governments and development institutions spend billions to help small businesses access financing, hoping this will create jobs and support inclusive economic growth. But we don’t really know if these programs reach the firms that need help most and help them grow. In a recent paper, we evaluate a loan program in Ecuador implemented by the state […]
The tariff spree during the first 100 days of the current US administration created bewildering economic policy chaos. The first 100 days also marked the largest tax increase in more than a generation. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump administration, discusses the consequences of the tariffs […]
Effectively suspended since the onset of the Covid pandemic, the EU fiscal rules were set to make a comeback in 2024. At the same time, the EU was pushing for a major and swift overhaul of its fiscal framework. This column describes how, caught between freedom and responsibility of the transition phase, countries with a […]
The ‘green growth’ debate is taking place in an oversimplified setting, largely disregarding the innovation factor. Technologies to mitigate climate change are being treated as given, or as emerging spontaneously, ignoring the fact that the portfolio of technologies available tomorrow depends on what is done today. This can easily lead to misguided preferences, either for […]
As the global economy continues to adapt to macroeconomic shifts, infrastructure investment remains a critical driver of job creation, long-term development opportunities and resilience. While recent interest rate hikes and inflationary pressures have reshaped return expectations and complicated financing conditions, infrastructure has stood firm as a preferred asset class. With relatively stable revenues and strong government […]
Britain’s ambition to rev up its economy and tap the AI revolution faces the harsh reality that the abundant, clean and reliable electricity supply this requires is unlikely to materialise any time soon. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has laid out several major industrial policies aimed at reviving Britain’s sluggish economy, including by pouring investment into the artificial […]
In the context of financing Ukraine’s wartime economy, Western governments have paid little attention to how Ukrainians are funding the war themselves. This column analyses giving to Ukraine’s largest non-governmental provider of lethal aid, Come Back Alive. Using high-frequency daily donation data, it finds that civilian fatalities and frontline media reports generate immediate and significant […]
Trump said the tariff on imports from India would start from Friday, in addition to an unspecified penalty for Russian dealings and involvement in the BRICS grouping of nations. Indian opposition parties criticised the government on Thursday, describing U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of a 25% tariff as a diplomatic failure for New Delhi, while […]
