Tariffs affect both supply and demand, possibly with contrasting effects on prices. This column shows that renewed US-China tensions could redirect Chinese exports to the euro area, boosting supply and lowering prices. Using detailed trade and inflation data, it estimates that such diversion could cut core euro area inflation by 0.3 percentage points over two […]
Only six months ago, a “soft landing” appeared to be in sight: the global economy was stabilizing after an extraordinary string of calamities both natural and man-made over the past few years. That moment has passed. The world economy today is once more running into turbulence. Without a swift course correction, the harm to living standards […]
Over the past decade, China has shifted towards greater self-reliance while enhancing its export competitiveness in advanced economy markets. This column introduces a new index to assess sectoral trade alignment across countries. China is importing fewer goods typically exported by advanced economies, while its exports increasingly resemble their import needs. This shift is intensifying competition […]
