As geopolitical tensions rise, fears of deglobalisation have taken centre stage. However, world trade has remained surprisingly resilient, at least through 2023. This column uses bilateral trade data from 187 countries between 2015 and 2023 to identify decoupling patterns and their economic impacts. Trade reorientation mirrors political alliances more than comparative advantage, with a quarter […]
WTO economists raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4%. Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world. In response, WTO economists raised the 2025 […]
Trade in both goods and services recorded solid gains compared with the first quarter. Global trade expanded by about $500 billion in the first half of 2025, despite volatility, policy shifts and persistent geopolitical tensions. Momentum remained strong into the third quarter, even as growth patterns varied across regions and sectors, according to UNCTAD Global […]
Fed Chair Powell to address NABE annual meeting on Tuesday. Gold prices jumped to a record high above $4,100 on Tuesday, supported by rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month and safe-haven demand following renewed trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,132.89 per ounce […]
The euro area faces persistently weak productivity growth alongside a sustained trade surplus and a trendless real exchange rate. This column shows that persistent productivity growth differentials relative to the rest of the world are a key driver of Europe’s external surplus. Structural trade shifts, such as declining home bias and falling import prices, have […]
Low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) have rebounded strongly since the COVID-19 pandemic. Gross national income (GNI) among these countries was resilient in 2023, at $36 trillion — and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that economic growth of developing economies will hold steady at about 4 percent over the next two years. Yet LMICs face […]
Combining product and capital market reforms at EU level with labour market and social policies at national level would be desirable, particularly within the euro area. The Lisbon Agenda has failed to deliver this coordination. The best policy strategy would be for the EU to go back to basics and focus all efforts on completing […]
As part of the ongoing US-China trade war, since 2020 the US has restricted the exports of cutting-edge semiconductors from third countries to Huawei. This column analyses the indirect effects of US export regulations on exports of Huawei suppliers in Japan. Although Japan itself did not export cutting-edge semiconductors, exports of affected suppliers declined in […]
International trade plays a complex role in shaping environmental outcomes. A new World Bank paper, “Trade’s Emissions Paradox: Cutting Greenhouse Gases, Raising Air Pollution,” prepared for the forthcoming flagship report “Reboot Development: The Economics of a Livable Planet,” brings a new perspective to the debate by revealing an important insight: while global trade has contributed […]
As global trade expands, so does the number of workers in high-income countries whose jobs are tied to exports. More of that growth is generated by exports to low-and middle-income countries than to other high-income countries. Employment generated by exports of goods and services to low and middle-income countries, either directly or indirectly, more than doubled […]
