The growing impact of political risk on financial markets
Risk associated with broad political changes can be quantified with a globally priced factor common across stocks, bonds and currencies. Political risk is increasingly driving
How sanctions can help stabilise global oil supply
There were initial concerns that the introduction of the Russian oil price cap in 2022 would see Russia cut production, global oil supply fall, and
Export bans that weren’t really bans: How Russia kept importing military goods
Despite comprehensive export sanctions from Western allies against Russia, Western components continue to appear in Russian weapons. This column uses transaction-level Russian customs data combined
The economics of the second Trump administration
As soon as he took office for the second time, Donald Trump made it clear that there would be dramatic changes in US government policy.
Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales and what to do about it
Europe’s reliance on US arms raises autonomy concerns, as security worsens and leaders aim to cut strategic and technological dependence. Worries about Europe’s dependence on
