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Business Economy Featured World

Understanding inflation with textual analysis: How news about commodities improves predictions

Commodity prices have historically been considered leading indicators of inflation, but the relationship has weakened since the mid-1980s, making them less reliable predictors. This column analyses more than a million Reuters news articles between 2001 and 2023 to capture supply and demand dynamics in commodity markets. The findings show that text-based indicators of supply and […]

Finance Banking Economy Featured World

Prudential instruments and the recent inflationary episode

Since the Global Crisis, prudential instruments to address financial stability concerns have been enhanced and broadly adopted across countries. Using the recently updated International Banking Research Network Prudential Instrument database, this column shows that by 2023 most of the 64 countries considered have implemented most of the instruments. During the 2021-2023 inflation episode, cyclical prudential […]

Finance Banking Economy Featured Politics

The financial sector and global dollar system

The current US administration’s approach to financial markets and institutions mixes familiar deregulatory policies with a range of other policies that are largely without precedent. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump administration, catalogues the relevant policy shifts that are likely to affect the financial sector and […]

Finance Banking Featured World

Investment funds and euro disaster risk

Investment funds are important players in global financial markets. This column examines their behaviour and interaction with other investors during stress periods on European sovereign bond markets. It shows that investment funds are the only investor group that exhibits a distinctly procyclical behaviour by persistently selling euro periphery sovereign debt in response to euro disaster […]

Finance Featured trade World

Disentangling trade policy uncertainty and equity market performance

Despite headlines dominated by threats and implementations of US and retaliatory tariffs since President Trump’s inauguration, it was not until his “Liberation Day” announcement on 2 April that equity prices fell significantly. This column asks why equity prices reacted so slowly to the elevated trade policy uncertainty that followed immediately after Trump’s election. Historical evidence […]

World Development Economy Featured Finance

Living la vida loca? Remote investing in Latin America, 1869-1929

Foreign stock exchange listings have become increasingly popular during the last 80 years. This column examines companies that were governed and listed in London during 1869-1929 but operated in Latin America and asks how this separation affected the firm value. The findings suggest that the location of governance for the firm has a more material […]

Finance Featured News World

Who supplies and demands safe assets – and why it matters

Safe assets are the building blocks of modern financial markets. This column examines the sectoral dynamics of safe assets across advanced economies since the 1980s. It shows that foreign demand for these assets has steadily increased, with the financial sector playing a key role in meeting it. However, because financial institutions often back the safe […]