Supply shocks and inflation: Timely insights from financial markets
Determining the drivers of inflation in real time is a central challenge for central banks. This column introduces a new financial markets-based model to identify
Gold rises more than 1% on risk-off mood, dollar pause
Non-yielding gold tends to do well in a low-interest-rate environment and during times of economic uncertainty. Gold prices gained more than 1% on Wednesday, with
Dollar rallies as US shutdown drags on, weighing on confidence
The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.3% to as much as 98.91 The U.S. dollar rose
Dollar dominance and the Trump administration
There is general agreement that a currency’s safe-haven status can be gauged by its response to changes in financial volatility. This column documents how, in
Understanding inflation with textual analysis: How news about commodities improves predictions
Commodity prices have historically been considered leading indicators of inflation, but the relationship has weakened since the mid-1980s, making them less reliable predictors. This column
Prudential instruments and the recent inflationary episode
Since the Global Crisis, prudential instruments to address financial stability concerns have been enhanced and broadly adopted across countries. Using the recently updated International Banking
The financial sector and global dollar system
The current US administration’s approach to financial markets and institutions mixes familiar deregulatory policies with a range of other policies that are largely without precedent.
Investor memory and biased beliefs: Evidence from the field
Financial markets are volatile, and research attributes this to highly variable and often irrational investor beliefs. This column uses a large-scale survey of Chinese retail
Investment funds and euro disaster risk
Investment funds are important players in global financial markets. This column examines their behaviour and interaction with other investors during stress periods on European sovereign
Disentangling trade policy uncertainty and equity market performance
Despite headlines dominated by threats and implementations of US and retaliatory tariffs since President Trump’s inauguration, it was not until his “Liberation Day” announcement on
