There is currently much discussion about President Trump’s tariffs, the US trade deficit, and its causes and impacts, but little in the way of economic modelling to inform the discussion. This column uses a theoretical model of international trade to demonstrate that the US trade deficit might be regarded as the consequence of rational market […]
Picture two houses—one with old windows, no insulation, and older appliances, and the other featuring simple energy-efficient upgrades and equipment. The difference between these neighboring houses is more than just aesthetics. Those living in the first house could ending up paying up to five times more for heating in winter than the better-off family just […]
In 2018 and 2019, the US administration hiked tariffs on imports from China. This column shows that imports from Mexico partly filled the gap, leading to an export and employment surge in Mexico. Using highly disaggregated firm-level data on Mexican exports, combined with detailed employer-employee data, the authors find that US tariffs against China resulted […]
Mothers continue to shoulder the majority of childcare responsibilities even in dual-earner households, contributing to gender gaps in earnings, labour force participation, and career advancement. This column uses an experiment targeting over 80,000 US school principals to show that when a school needs to contact a parent, the mother is 1.4 times more likely than […]
Cities have faced a host of shocks throughout history, including earthquakes, hurricanes, coastal flooding, and storm surges, as well as wartime destruction, such as in the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. This column looks at one of the most dramatic events in history, the atomic bombing of the city of Hiroshima in Japan, to explore the mechanisms […]
Cities in low- and middle-income countries are growing fast—but their ability to finance the infrastructure and services needed to support people and jobs is lagging behind. The consequences are real: without better roads, transit, water, energy, and housing, cities struggle to deliver basic services or attract investment, limiting job creation and economic opportunity. That’s because urban infrastructure […]
Thailand’s coastal and marine resources are vital engines of growth. From pristine beaches that attract millions of tourists each year to the Eastern Economic Corridor that supports production and trade, the country’s “blue economy” involving 23 coastal provinces is estimated to contribute around 30 percent of Thailand’s GDP and one-fourth of the nation’s employment. As Thailand […]
In 2025, the US government announced a series of tariff increases targeting major trading partners, including Canada, China, and Mexico. This column estimates the economic consequences of these proposed tariffs to the US and globally. According to this model, real wages in the US decline by 1.4% in 2028 and GDP falls by approximately 1%, […]
A widely cited argument in favour of easing employment protection rules is that greater flexibility in hiring and firing can lead to increased job matching efficiency and productivity, but this may come at a cost for certain groups of workers. This column examines the impact of the 2012 ‘Fornero Reform’ in Italy, which lowered the […]
The sanctions which followed the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine generated a large trade shock for firms trading with Russia. This column examines the short-run response of firms in Latvia – a small open economy with strong pre-war trade ties with Russia. The author finds that firms with lower initial exposure to Russia were the […]
