In 2025, the US government announced a series of tariff increases targeting major trading partners, including Canada, China, and Mexico. This column estimates the economic consequences of these proposed tariffs to the US and globally. According to this model, real wages in the US decline by 1.4% in 2028 and GDP falls by approximately 1%, […]
A widely cited argument in favour of easing employment protection rules is that greater flexibility in hiring and firing can lead to increased job matching efficiency and productivity, but this may come at a cost for certain groups of workers. This column examines the impact of the 2012 ‘Fornero Reform’ in Italy, which lowered the […]
The sanctions which followed the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine generated a large trade shock for firms trading with Russia. This column examines the short-run response of firms in Latvia – a small open economy with strong pre-war trade ties with Russia. The author finds that firms with lower initial exposure to Russia were the […]
Government procurement—the process in which public entities buy goods and services from private companies—represents between 5% and 20% of a country’s GDP, depending on the country. Public procurement policies allow governments to strategically support certain firms and sectors, for example, small businesses or eco-friendly products. In using public procurement systems, policymakers must navigate a trade-off: […]
Advances in AI are transforming the economy. Behind this wave of visible innovation lies a less visible but significant trend: the role of large technology firms – commonly referred to as ‘big techs’ – across the AI supply chain. This column analyses the AI supply chain and the market structure of every input layer, highlighting […]
The conventional wisdom is that uncertainty leads to economic contractions, but recent evidence challenges this assumption. This column introduces two novel concepts of uncertainty – agreed and disagreed uncertainty. It shows that when uncertainty is accompanied by widespread consumer disagreement about economic conditions (disagreed uncertainty), the economy remains stable despite the elevated uncertainty. In contrast, […]
Individuals with a disability have remarkably low employment rates compared to the rest of the population. This column examines whether the rapid rise in the ability to work from home post-pandemic has improved disability employment. The authors estimate that in the US working from home has already increased full-time disability employment levels by over a […]
Economic sanctions have become an increasingly common instrument of foreign policy, promoted as a non-violent alternative to military intervention. However, their effects on labour markets remain underexplored. This column examines the case of Iran following the unprecedented international sanctions imposed in 2012 to investigate how sudden and extreme shocks to market access affect the allocation […]
As economies develop, it is often assumed that agriculture becomes less relevant—a small slice of GDP and a shrinking share of employment. But evidence from Europe and Central Asia tells a different story. Across countries stretching from Portugal to Uzbekistan, agriculture and the broader agrifood sector remain essential pillars of economic development, employment, trade, and […]
How do monetary policy shocks affect workers’ wages and employment? This column looks at the role that firms play in determining the wage and employment responses to such shocks. The authors show that, when it comes to employment, young firms are especially sensitive to monetary policy shocks, and that the wages of workers at large […]
