Over the past 30 years, laws in Italy have become longer, more convoluted, and frequently unintelligible even to seasoned legal professionals. This column exploits variation in the ability of lower courts to interpret poorly drafted laws in alignment with Italy’s Supreme Court of Cassation to assess how legal uncertainty affects the local economy. The authors […]
Britain’s ambition to rev up its economy and tap the AI revolution faces the harsh reality that the abundant, clean and reliable electricity supply this requires is unlikely to materialise any time soon. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has laid out several major industrial policies aimed at reviving Britain’s sluggish economy, including by pouring investment into the artificial […]
In the context of financing Ukraine’s wartime economy, Western governments have paid little attention to how Ukrainians are funding the war themselves. This column analyses giving to Ukraine’s largest non-governmental provider of lethal aid, Come Back Alive. Using high-frequency daily donation data, it finds that civilian fatalities and frontline media reports generate immediate and significant […]
Yen sinks, Bank of Japan signals no hurry to resume rate hikes. The dollar headed for its strongest weekly performance in almost three years against other major currencies, maintaining momentum on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed new tariff rates on dozens of trade partners. Some of the currencies of the countries that were […]
Investors weigh impact from Trump threats over Russian oil. Oil prices were little changed on Friday and heading for a weekly gain as investors weighed the impact of further tariffs and sanctions by U.S. President Donald Trump. Brent crude futures were down 35 cents, or 0.49%, at $71.35 a barrel by 1039 GMT. U.S. West […]
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was down 0.2% at $5.15-1/2 a bushel. Chicago wheat futures eased on Tuesday to approach their lowest since 2020 as seasonal supply pressure from Northern Hemisphere harvests weighed on the market. Corn edged down to set fresh contract lows, with steady U.S. crop conditions and […]
Trump’s threats come amid renewed concerns about oil demand and some analysts expect faltering economic growth in the second half of the year Oil slipped about 1% on Tuesday as rising OPEC+ supply and worries of weaker global demand countered concern about U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to India over its Russian oil purchases. The […]
Imagine a truckload of fresh mangoes grown by smallholder farmers in Sri Lanka. The fruit is ripe, fragrant, and ready for export. But instead of heading straight to market, it sits at the border waiting for inspections, test results, and paper certifications. Hours turn into days. By the time the mangoes reach their destination, some […]
The timely detection of recessions is critical for policymakers to make informed decisions. This column presents an algorithm for detecting recessions early using labour market data. By combining unemployment and vacancy rates, it shows that a less noisy signal can be obtained compared to relying on a single measure like industrial production. Current official prediction […]
Since the 1970s, banking regulators have worked to set minimum standards for internationally active banks. The latest agreement, Basel III, was introduced following the 2008 financial crisis, but only partially adopted by the US in 2013. This column discusses the final set of rules (‘Basel endgame’) and their potential implications for the US economy and […]
