Why inflation may respond faster to big shocks: The rise of state-dependent pricing
Macroeconomic models distinguish time-dependent pricing, where firms change prices at fixed intervals, from state-dependent pricing, where firms change prices in response to changing demand or
Europe’s public finances in a warming world
Climate change is increasingly shaping macro-fiscal outlooks. Extreme weather events, chronic damages from global warming, and decarbonisation efforts all have growing implications for public finances
Pricing cascades: Inflation in a networked economy
The post‑pandemic inflation surge is often attributed to pent-up demand and opportunistic price hikes by firms. This column argues that the surge was not driven
US tariffs may deepen integration, elsewhere
While recent analysis has focused on direct impacts of US tariffs and potential retaliation, major US trading partners have intensified trade negotiations with each other,
You only live twice: A growth strategy for Ukraine
Between regaining independence in 1991 and the Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine went from being on par with the more prosperous economies of the former
Income, democracy, and growth: Broadening the perspective
Does prosperity bring democracy? Does democracy boost prosperity? This column argues that the answer to both questions depends critically on whether a country has made
Geopolitics as a monetary shock: The ‘silent tightening’ in the European banking system
Geopolitical tensions have once again seized the centre stage of macroeconomic policy debates. From Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine to instability in the Middle East,
Inventories, diversification, and trade vulnerabilities
Reducing supply dependencies and vulnerabilities is now a cornerstone of economic policy. This column analyses how French manufacturing firms used inventories and diversified their country-specific
India forecasts 2025/26 economic growth at 7.4%
The Indian economy grew 6.5% in 2024/25 and 8.2% in 2023/24. India’s economy is expected to grow 7.4% in the fiscal year ending in March,
Brexit migration shifts: Benchmarking the UK to Germany
Brexit has been one of the most consequential institutional shocks to a major European economy in recent decades. This column examines how Brexit reshaped the
