Since the 1970s, banking regulators have worked to set minimum standards for internationally active banks. The latest agreement, Basel III, was introduced following the 2008 financial crisis, but only partially adopted by the US in 2013. This column discusses the final set of rules (‘Basel endgame’) and their potential implications for the US economy and […]
President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement triggered a discussion of whether import tariffs can reduce trade deficits or boost certain industries. This column develops a model, calibrated to the US economy, which illustrates how a uniform import tariff generates both expansionary effects upstream and contractionary effects downstream and is highly inflationary, reflecting its hybrid nature as […]
Central bank digital currencies are gaining traction as a potential innovation in central banking, with numerous countries considering their implementation. However, given the limited real-world experience with such currencies, researchers and policymakers depend on theoretical analysis to assess their potential. This column presents a new macroeconomic model that reveals significant welfare gains from introducing central […]
Nearly 20 years have passed since the EU and India started negotiations on a bilateral trade and investment agreement. After seven years of intense negotiations, the process stalled in 2014, primarily because of the failure of the respective political leaders to make difficult choices. Talks restarted in 2022 and now offer a reasonable chance of […]
The global space sector is evolving rapidly. No longer limited to scientific missions and Cold War rivalries, it has become a critical arena for commercial innovation, military strategy and geopolitical influence. Satellite launch costs have tumbled, significantly expanding the scope for new space-related applications. This Blueprint assesses the state of Europe’s space sector, the challenges […]
The EU and the US have taken starkly different approaches to the regulation of new monies issued using distributed ledger technology. The current US administration prefers dollar-backed stablecoins, with the aim to reinforce dollar dominance worldwide. This column argues that dollar-pegged stablecoins pose a risk for the EU, but the current legal framework can ensure […]
Developing countries invest about $1 billion annually to train millions of aspiring and existing entrepreneurs. While significant, this investment doesn’t fully address the shortage of expertise needed to better support micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) or to design programs to improve their access to finance, markets, and technology. So, what is limiting MSMEs from […]
Banking crises have repeatedly inflicted serious damage on the real economy. This column discusses a new proposal for a public liquidity backstop in Switzerland to support the orderly resolution of systemically important banks in times of crisis. While such a backstop can deliver substantial ex-post benefits, it could also encourage excessive leverage and risk ex-ante […]
Geopolitical risk is a key concern for the euro area, yet most available measures reflect a US perspective. This column introduces a new indicator of geopolitical risk tailored specifically to the euro area, based entirely on newspaper coverage from local sources. The authors show that shocks to this index have significant recessionary and inflationary effects, […]
Depending on how it is measured, China’s economy is now the world’s largest or second largest. It is also the world’s second-most intertwined in terms of trade relationships, after the European Union, and is a major investor and lender in the emerging world. Understanding where China is heading is important for the whole world. This […]
