As geopolitical tensions rise, fears of deglobalisation have taken centre stage. However, world trade has remained surprisingly resilient, at least through 2023. This column uses bilateral trade data from 187 countries between 2015 and 2023 to identify decoupling patterns and their economic impacts. Trade reorientation mirrors political alliances more than comparative advantage, with a quarter […]
Global growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026. The global economy is showing signs of a moderate slowdown after a first half of robust activity largely attributable to temporary factors — such as front-loading of trade and investment and inventory management strategies, […]
The IMF this week edged up its 2025 global growth forecast given a more benign impact from tariffs. Global public debt is projected to rise above 100% of gross domestic product by 2029, reaching its highest level since 1948 and continuing to climb, the IMF said on Wednesday, urging countries to build up buffers to […]
Fed Chair Powell to address NABE annual meeting on Tuesday. Gold prices jumped to a record high above $4,100 on Tuesday, supported by rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month and safe-haven demand following renewed trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,132.89 per ounce […]
Oil prices rose on Monday after hitting five-month lows in the previous session, as investors focused on potential talks between the presidents of the United States and China that could ease trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Brent crude futures rose 65 cents, or 1%, to $63.38 a barrel by 1313 GMT. U.S. […]
When economies lose momentum and stagnation becomes entrenched, a shift in thinking and action is imperative. So urged Kofi Annan at a Davos panel decades ago—a call that now rings true for South Africa, where economic growth has languished and policy has too often wavered. The likes of Singapore, Vietnam and Poland have shown that sweeping, […]
Inequality is a major concern for many economies, prompting the question of whether some regimes are more effective at reducing inequality than others. This column uses measures of welfare including health status and living space to show that, despite Soviet communism’s aim of radical egalitarianism, it failed to eliminate inequality as effectively as promised. While […]
Developing economies today face an investment shortfall of historic proportions. Meeting even the most modest development goals will require a huge investment push—equal to about 5 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) per year. For low-income countries, the financing gap is about 8 percent of GDP annually. It’s a prohibitive price tag that runs into trillions of […]
Central banks facing post-pandemic inflation often considered ‘looking through’ supply shocks. Using a New Keynesian framework in which agents gradually learn whether a cost-push shock is temporary or persistent, this column shows that such look-through strategies can amplify inflation when information is incomplete. In contrast, a standard Taylor rule prevents an additional demand-driven inflation impulse […]
Africa is bracing for a consumer and manufacturing boom. It won’t come with the snap of a finger. The continent must first navigate a gauntlet of challenges from patchy infrastructure and fragmented markets to skills gaps and inconsistent regulation. But the potential is undeniable—and the stakes could hardly be higher. By 2050, the continent’s headcount […]
