In higher-income countries, urban proximity has been shown to enhance workers’ skills and income, but less is known about low- and middle-income countries. This column examines how the income of initially poor workers in Brazil changes after urban migration. Wages go up immediately for migrants to both southern and northern Brazilian cities, but only in […]
During the Greek debt crisis, zombie firms and non-performing business loans peaked at 20% and 50%, respectively. This column examines the negative effects of ‘zombie’ firms on investment, employment, and productivity during the crisis. The findings suggest that zombie firms have a negative impact on the economy through multiple channels, but highlight heterogeneities across sectors. […]
Forecasts from professionals (economists, analysts, brokers, academics) are a key input into economic decision-making. This column highlights that professional forecasts are ‘lumpy’, often remaining unchanged for several periods, before shifting in large, infrequent jumps. It argues that this reflects ‘rational inaction’, as frequent adjustments or constant swings could undermine credibility. It suggests a natural distinction […]
Stephen Miran, Chair of the US Council of Economic Advisers, claims that we live in ‘the world of Triffin’, meaning that foreign official accumulation of dollars is driving US current account deficits. This column argues that over the past ten years US current account deficits have persisted while foreign official inflows into US investments have […]
