Investors and policymakers increasingly rely on verbal guidance rather than policy moves. This column examines whether the emotional sentiment of the chair of the Federal Reserve’s voice in press conferences affects the probability of a sudden, significant drop in bank stock prices. A more positive vocal tone by the Fed chair reduces the risk of […]
Despite a succession of shocks since 2020, the global economy has held up remarkably well—so far. But the margin for error is dwindling. Total global debt is now nearly 25 percent higher than it was on the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic, when it already was at an all-time high. This overhang could undercut all economies’ ability to shield […]
The World Bank has revised its estimates of global poverty to reflect new data on prices and national poverty lines from more than 160 countries in the world. The revisions to the global poverty estimates suggest that more people have escaped extreme poverty over the last decades, yet the world is poorer than we thought. […]
“Have you had your rice today?” In Viet Nam, this everyday greeting reflects just how central rice is to life—so essential that the day doesn’t truly begin until people have eaten a few mouthfuls. Half of humanity eats rice. But behind the ubiquitous staple lies a mounting crisis. The global rice industry is experiencing real […]
GDP growth appears to be on a global slowdown. This column uses survey data from individuals across 161 countries since 1990 and data for the US going back to 1958 to provide evidence of a robust connection between citizens’ experiences with economic growth and their perceived trust in government. As the state relies on citizen […]
Cognitive skills are commonly assumed to begin deteriorating from the age of 30, which could pose a significant challenge for rapidly ageing populations. But this assumption relies largely on cross-sectional data that cannot distinguish between ageing patterns and cohort differences. Using German longitudinal data, this column finds that skills, on average, increase markedly into one’s […]
Consumers have vastly different views about inflation – shaped by personal experience, financial literacy, and exposure to economic news. This column examines how consumers’ housing status shapes the attention they pay to inflation and their subsequent spending decisions, demonstrating marked differences between renters and homeowners. In an experiment conducted with US households between 2021 and […]
Over the past decade, China has shifted towards greater self-reliance while enhancing its export competitiveness in advanced economy markets. This column introduces a new index to assess sectoral trade alignment across countries. China is importing fewer goods typically exported by advanced economies, while its exports increasingly resemble their import needs. This shift is intensifying competition […]
