When wealth or income suddenly increases (‘easy money’), this may be directed towards unproductive ‘easy spending’. This column explores the relationship between conspicuous consumption and revenue windfalls using country-specific variations in commodity export prices, and finds that the responses are bigger for luxury than for non-luxury imports. Countries that have higher inequality, weaker control of […]
The tariff spree during the first 100 days of the current US administration created bewildering economic policy chaos. The first 100 days also marked the largest tax increase in more than a generation. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump administration, discusses the consequences of the tariffs […]
China’s growth model has continued to rely on expanding industrial capacity and exporting to the world, rather than on domestic consumption. This has lead to a significant increase in China’s global share of manufactured exports and has raised concerns about overcapacity (Figure 1; Xu, 2025). The imbalance arises because China’s expanding production capacity is outpacing […]
Central banks raise interest rates to reduce aggregate demand and bring inflation down. This column uses credit register data and product-level price data from the euro area to highlight a parallel and potentially offsetting supply-side mechanism. It shows that in markets where firms rely more heavily on floating-rate loans, the ECB’s monetary tightening had a […]
President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement triggered a discussion of whether import tariffs can reduce trade deficits or boost certain industries. This column develops a model, calibrated to the US economy, which illustrates how a uniform import tariff generates both expansionary effects upstream and contractionary effects downstream and is highly inflationary, reflecting its hybrid nature as […]
The prosperity and economic transformation of Europe and Central Asia (ECA) hinge on making energy reliable and affordable for all. Across the region, many countries are prioritizing energy efficiency and renewable energy as part of their development strategies —not only to strengthen energy security, but also to create jobs, foster innovation, and lower costs. Renewables […]
The world is seriously off track to meet global nutrition targets. In fact, in some countries, statistics are moving in the wrong direction. Stunting remains a widespread problem, with nearly 148 million children affected, while at the other end of the spectrum, millions of adults are either struggling with obesity or suffering from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). […]
Brent crude oil prices could hit $110 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Goldman Sachs analysts have forecast, while HSBC analysts see prices topping above $80. Prices for Brent could average around $95 in the fourth quarter of 2025, Goldman Sachs said in a note dated June 22. Their assumptions included oil […]
The World Bank has revised its estimates of global poverty to reflect new data on prices and national poverty lines from more than 160 countries in the world. The revisions to the global poverty estimates suggest that more people have escaped extreme poverty over the last decades, yet the world is poorer than we thought. […]
History is full of evidence that tariffs harm economic performance. This column assesses the two waves of globalisation in modern history and how they were interrupted by barriers to trade. The first wave started in the mid-19th century and lasted until WWI, while the second wave started after WWII and lasted until the Global Crisis […]
