Europe’s reliance on US arms raises autonomy concerns, as security worsens and leaders aim to cut strategic and technological dependence. Worries about Europe’s dependence on the United States military industrial base have increased with the worsening security situation in Europe and the deterioration of the transatlantic relationship. With a new dataset covering all US foreign […]
The U.S. stock market’s bull run is almost three years old, but if history is a guide, that would make it only middle-aged. The S&P 500 has set a series of record highs in the lead-up to Sunday’s anniversary of the start of the bull market on October 12, 2022. On that date three years ago, […]
Surveys with information provision experiments have become popular in economics. This column introduces an information provision experiment in a model of rational inattention – where information requires paying attention, which is costly – to study the implications of experimental findings for behaviour outside the survey. It highlights that the balance of two counteracting effects, attention-in-daily-life […]
The increasing use of mobile phones is making a range of digital resources more widely available to people across the income spectrum. Eighty-four percent of adults in developing countries now have their own phone—a promising finding from the inaugural Global Findex Digital Connectivity Tracker. Yet, about one-in-four of these adults have a more affordable basic phone, […]
Central banks rarely speak with one voice. At the Federal Reserve, for instance, each official brings a distinct perspective, and markets parse every speech for hints of where policy is headed. Different views may help make better decisions, but do they also help when explaining those decisions to the public? And what happens when voices […]
Central banks have increasingly engaged with climate-related topics in their public communication, but little is known about the drivers and effects of this shift. This column presents a comprehensive analysis of climate-related central bank communication using a novel dataset of over 35,000 speeches from 131 central banks spanning 1986-2023. The authors find that climate communication […]
Inflation targeting has emerged as the dominant monetary policy framework in advanced and emerging market economies. This column discusses three main challenges faced by inflation-targeting central banks: the recent high-inflation episode and increasingly frequent supply-side disruptions; expanding central bank balance sheets since the Global Crisis; and risks to central bank independence. The authors argue that […]
Population ageing makes it harder for governments to finance programmes like public pensions and long-term care. But policy responses, such as tightening programme eligibility and benefit levels or raising taxes on current workers, often prove unpopular. This column presents findings from the latest wave of the OECD’s Risks that Matter survey, which takes stock of […]
Three forces have always shaped globalisation – technology, policies, and geopolitics. What distinguishes the current moment is that all three are accelerating simultaneously but in different directions. This column introduces a new eBook showing how this divergent acceleration creates transformation rather than retreat from globalisation. But it also generates acute tension between rapidly changing economic […]
Investors and policymakers increasingly rely on verbal guidance rather than policy moves. This column examines whether the emotional sentiment of the chair of the Federal Reserve’s voice in press conferences affects the probability of a sudden, significant drop in bank stock prices. A more positive vocal tone by the Fed chair reduces the risk of […]
