UK CPI inflation in 1975 reached 25%, a period now known as the ‘Great Inflation’. This column uses a range of empirical and narrative evidence to illustrate the importance of fiscal policy in this period. While stabilising and reducing debt has been the primary peacetime fiscal policy objective for most of modern British history, this […]
Commodity prices have historically been considered leading indicators of inflation, but the relationship has weakened since the mid-1980s, making them less reliable predictors. This column analyses more than a million Reuters news articles between 2001 and 2023 to capture supply and demand dynamics in commodity markets. The findings show that text-based indicators of supply and […]
Corn fell on forecasts of a record large U.S. harvest, wheat firmed ahead of a U.S. interest rate decision. Chicago soybeans fell on Monday, as lacking demand from China for U.S. supplies pressured, with traders watching for signs of progress as U.S.-China trade talks resumed in Madrid. Corn fell on forecasts of a record large […]
When wealth or income suddenly increases (‘easy money’), this may be directed towards unproductive ‘easy spending’. This column explores the relationship between conspicuous consumption and revenue windfalls using country-specific variations in commodity export prices, and finds that the responses are bigger for luxury than for non-luxury imports. Countries that have higher inequality, weaker control of […]
Commodity price spikes at the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine contributed significantly to global inflation in 2022-23, which caught many policymakers off guard in both its intensity and persistence. This column uses a nonstationary competitive storage model to demonstrate that, beyond the temporary surge, the war-induced reduction in Ukraine’s acreage caused an upward […]
U.S. crude stocks fell by 2.42 million barrels, market sources said on Tuesday, citing American Petroleum Institute figures, ahead of official data at 1430 GMT. Oil rose on Wednesday as the American Petroleum Institute reported a drop in U.S. crude inventories and investors awaited the next steps in talks to end the Ukraine war, with […]
Over the past two decades, many developing countries have made remarkable progress in reducing poverty, expanding access to education and health care, and investing in infrastructure. These gains were the result of sound national policies and coordinated efforts by the international community, often financed through responsible borrowing. But the road ahead looks more precarious. Debt […]
