Tariffs and technological hegemony
The Trump administration’s sweeping tariff measures are intended to increase the competitiveness of US firms – especially in high-tech sectors – and reduce US trade
Harnessing the wisdom of the crowds for OECD recession predictions
A key challenge in predicting recessions is distinguishing which factors matter at different forecasting horizons and across different countries. This column applies machine learning methods
Fact-checking reduces the circulation of misinformation – we should not get rid of it
Fact-checking has emerged as one of the most prominent policy tools to combat the spread of misinformation, but critics have argued that it infringes upon
Stifling or scaling: Acquisitions and their effect on start-up innovation
Over the past two decades, start-ups have increasingly turned to acquisition as their preferred exit strategy, but the impact of such acquisitions on innovation is
How foreign wars can consolidate authoritarian power: Evidence from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
It is a common hope that Russia’s war with Ukraine will erode domestic support for the Kremlin. This column uses individual-level survey data to show
Sterling drops as inflation cements BoE cut expectations, dollar up before US inflation
British consumer price inflation fell to 3.2% in November, its lowest since March, from 3.6% in October, official figures showed. Sterling fell on Wednesday after
Dollar remains firm as markets await ECB, BoE rate announcements
The yen dipped 0.1% to 155.85, extending a 0.6% slide on Wednesday. The dollar inched higher against its major counterparts on Thursday as markets positioned
Global M&A deals hit $4.8bn on strong tech and AI deals
Technology M&A, powered by AI-related deals, was in the vanguard of the year’s surge in merger activity. A potent rebound in global M&A is on
Trade policy uncertainty and supply chain disruptions: Firm-level evidence from “Liberation Day”
The US announcement on 2 April 2025 of “Liberation Day” tariffs created an unexpected, precisely timed, and country-specific episode of trade policy uncertainty. This column
Refugee entrepreneurs as business multipliers: Evidence from Ukrainians in Poland
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, over a million Ukrainian refugees fled to Poland. This column shows that far from displacing local businesses, these refugees
