Understanding inflation with textual analysis: How news about commodities improves predictions
Commodity prices have historically been considered leading indicators of inflation, but the relationship has weakened since the mid-1980s, making them less reliable predictors. This column
Ripples presaging a financial tsunami
Loss of confidence in the US dollar’s reserve currency status could trigger a collapse of the US Treasury market and international financial fragmentation. This column
Budgeting in uncertain times: making every penny count
Governments everywhere are facing significant fiscal challenges due to rising debt, ageing populations trend in some parts of the world such as Asia, Europe and Northern America,
Sparking the investment miracle developing economies need to create jobs
Developing economies today face an investment shortfall of historic proportions. Meeting even the most modest development goals will require a huge investment push—equal to about 5 percent
When the heat rises, progress on women’s economic empowerment cools
Hotter-than-usual years can slow or derail advances in women’s legal rights. A new analysis spanning five decades finds that temperature anomalies—years significantly hotter than a country’s historical
The return of inflation: Why ‘look through’ can backfire under incomplete information
Central banks facing post-pandemic inflation often considered ‘looking through’ supply shocks. Using a New Keynesian framework in which agents gradually learn whether a cost-push shock
Africa’s industrial champions – Why it takes a village to build a continent’s future
Africa is bracing for a consumer and manufacturing boom. It won’t come with the snap of a finger. The continent must first navigate a gauntlet
Data in action: a decade of remote, rapid damage assessments
As disasters grow more frequent and severe, the need for fast, reliable information in the immediate aftermath has never been greater. Governments, development partners and
Timelines for Change: Timing Issues in Port Reforms
In port reform, timing isn’t just another detail — it represents the difference between a smooth transition and a stalled project. Master plans run for
Geopolitical shifts and their economic impacts on Europe: Short-term risks, medium-term scenarios and policy choices
Over the last decade, Europe has suffered from the decay of the post-war international order, economic coercion from both China and the United States, and
