How shifts in geoeconomic power are rewiring global trade
Trade growth stalled after the Global Financial Crisis, and world trade is now splitting along geopolitical lines. This poses a distinctive challenge for the EU,
When the news you watch shapes the inflation you expect
Central banks lean on communication to anchor inflation expectations. But most households learn about the economy from the news rather than from policy statements, and
Carbon risk in loan pricing: Commitment channels and real effects
Transition risks related to climate change are increasingly recognised in equity and bond markets. This column uses syndicated loan tranches issued to US firms to
Baby busts and GDP booms: Demographic change and the macroeconomy
Globally declining birth rates have, over the last seven decades, slowed population growth and raised average ages. This column argues that despite widespread economic pessimism,
Digital banks, social media, and the competition for deposits
The rapid digitalisation of banking and the widespread use of social media are transforming competition for retail deposits. Using US branch-level data, this column shows
Rethinking the use of quantitative easing for macro stimulus
Quantitative easing has faced recent criticism for causing large central bank losses and contributing to the post-COVID inflation, raising the question of under what conditions
The AI premium
Artificial intelligence is already reshaping the economy and society. This column analyses how AI affects firms, markets, and workers using 380 trillion tokens of realised
What four charts reveal about the global jobs challenge
A record number of young people are approaching working age in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), creating a historic global jobs challenge. Generating sufficient job
Beyond the snapshot: How poverty really unfolds over time in the EU
Poverty is not a static condition but a dynamic process. Yet the at-risk-of-poverty rate, which underpins EU poverty monitoring, captures who is poor in a
Dividend tax reforms: Why design shapes revenue and measured inequality
Governments increasingly look to capital income for both revenue and redistribution. This column compares two dividend tax reforms in Israel – a permanent rate increase
