Behind the scenes of survey disagreement: Interpreting experts’ judgement
Consensus survey forecasts by professionals, often reported in media outlets, hide heterogeneous responses. This may be because respondents use different models to make forecasts, or
The drivers of post-pandemic inflation
Many observers have linked the sharp rise in prices in the US and Europe since 2021 to supply chain disruptions and increasing energy costs. This
The impact of de-risking by correspondent banks on international trade
The sharp decline in correspondent banking over the past decade has raised concerns that the associated disruptions in cross-border payments could hamper international trade and
Post-pandemic US inflation: A tale of fiscal and monetary policy
During the recent monetary policy tightening cycle, US inflation has proven persistent, with discussions emerging about the effectiveness of monetary policy with respect to previous
Investing in defence as a European public good
The mounting geopolitical threats make the EU governments’ holding on to national defence policies increasingly outdated. Defence fulfils the standard properties of a public good,
Central bank independence: Views from history and machine learning
Economists overwhelmingly support the idea of an independent central bank. This column introduces a new data set on central bank independence since 1800. It documents
Draghi is right on many issues, but he is wrong on telecoms
The recently published Draghi report on European competitiveness offers radical proposals to reverse Europe’s competitive decline compared to China and the US. This column argues
From shadows to sunrise: How to overcome the middle-income trap
Poland has emerged as a standout performer among Eastern European economies. But the country’s journey from lower-middle-income to high-income status remains an exception. This column
Local decline and populism
Support for right-wing populist parties in many advanced democracies is characterised by considerable regional heterogeneity. This column uses data on high-street vacancies in the UK
The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices
Monetary policy is said to impact the economy with long and variable lags. This column studies how monetary policy affects subcomponents of the Personal Consumption
