Macroeconomic impacts of defence spending
Worsened security in Europe has prompted EU member states to increase their defence capacity. This column argues that the NATO target to boost defence spending
Tariffs and technological hegemony
The Trump administration’s sweeping tariff measures are intended to increase the competitiveness of US firms – especially in high-tech sectors – and reduce US trade
Harnessing the wisdom of the crowds for OECD recession predictions
A key challenge in predicting recessions is distinguishing which factors matter at different forecasting horizons and across different countries. This column applies machine learning methods
Fact-checking reduces the circulation of misinformation – we should not get rid of it
Fact-checking has emerged as one of the most prominent policy tools to combat the spread of misinformation, but critics have argued that it infringes upon
Stifling or scaling: Acquisitions and their effect on start-up innovation
Over the past two decades, start-ups have increasingly turned to acquisition as their preferred exit strategy, but the impact of such acquisitions on innovation is
How foreign wars can consolidate authoritarian power: Evidence from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
It is a common hope that Russia’s war with Ukraine will erode domestic support for the Kremlin. This column uses individual-level survey data to show
Sterling drops as inflation cements BoE cut expectations, dollar up before US inflation
British consumer price inflation fell to 3.2% in November, its lowest since March, from 3.6% in October, official figures showed. Sterling fell on Wednesday after
Dollar remains firm as markets await ECB, BoE rate announcements
The yen dipped 0.1% to 155.85, extending a 0.6% slide on Wednesday. The dollar inched higher against its major counterparts on Thursday as markets positioned
Global M&A deals hit $4.8bn on strong tech and AI deals
Technology M&A, powered by AI-related deals, was in the vanguard of the year’s surge in merger activity. A potent rebound in global M&A is on
Trade policy uncertainty and supply chain disruptions: Firm-level evidence from “Liberation Day”
The US announcement on 2 April 2025 of “Liberation Day” tariffs created an unexpected, precisely timed, and country-specific episode of trade policy uncertainty. This column
