When travel restrictions became trade frictions: Evidence from Covid-era border closures
Covid travel restrictions limited movement of people but also made cross-border goods trade more difficult. This column uses a structural gravity model on global trade
Stack battles: the US-China artificial-intelligence rivalry is moving beyond chips alone
China is challenging US leadership in both AI hardware and software, with Europe unlikely to catch up. Despite Chinese progress, the United States remains for
Should the European Central Bank slow down quantitative tightening?
The ECB could slow down QT in response to currently tight financial conditions, but should communicate its intentions with care. Since early 2023, the European
Buyer beware: a taxonomy of the risks of international carbon credits
As the EU reintegrates international carbon credits into its climate framework, understanding the associated risks is essential. For more than a decade, international carbon credits
Green finance or financing green? Bridging the EU’s sustainable-finance and capital-market architectures
The European Union has not done a good job of integrating its green goals with its overall approach to finance. Sustainability disclosure and capital markets
Prevention at birth: Birthright citizenship reduces youth crime
When youth crime draws public attention, policymakers typically call for tougher policing and harsher sanctions, overlooking the crime-reducing benefits of early prevention – investments in
Trade restrictions, trade policy uncertainty and FDI flows
Trade policy has become a major source of macroeconomic risk. The sharp rise in trade restrictions and the growing unpredictability of trade rules are reshaping
Who is most at risk? A global vision indicator to measure climate vulnerability
Nearly 1 in 5 people globally are at high risk from climate hazards, living in areas exposed to extreme weather with limited capacity to recover
A Warning Shot for Human Capital: Evidence of an AI Learning Penalty
Are we missing the big story on what AI means for human capital? I raised this question last year in my closing remarks at our AI
Extreme poverty: hard-won gains, new risks ahead
For decades, the world made remarkable progress in reducing extreme poverty. This transformation, driven in large part by economic growth, lifted more than a billion
