2024 Marks a Pivotal Shift in the Global Poverty Landscape
We need a fundamental rethink of where—and how—the fight against poverty must be waged. This is because for the first time, more people living in extreme poverty—defined as less than $3.00 per person per day at 2021 Purchasing Power Parity prices—reside in countries classified by the World Bank as Fragile and Conflict-affected Situations (FCS) The number of extreme poor in these countries reached an estimated 415 million in 2024 (Figure 1).
And this shift is expected to deepen. By 2030, nearly 60 percent of people living in extreme poverty worldwide—around 436 million people out of 757 million—are projected to reside in fragile states. (Figure 1).
Figure 1. More people living in extreme poverty will reside in FCS countries than in non-FCS countries by the end of this decade.
Fragile States in Sub-Saharan Africa Will House Half of the People Living in Extreme Poverty Globally
Nowhere is this transition more evident than in Sub-Saharan Africa. The region already bears the greatest burden of global poverty and fragility. As of 2024, it accounts for 70 percent of the global population living in extreme poverty and is home to half of the FCS countries worldwide.
By 2030, the region is expected to host nearly 80 percent of the world’s population living in extreme poverty. Fragile states within the region alone will host nearly half of the global total—367 million people (Figure 2). That is nearly triple the number from two decades ago. This convergence of poverty and fragility places Sub-Saharan Africa at the heart of the global development challenge.
A Quarter of People in Extreme Poverty Will Live in Just Two Fragile States
Among fragile countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, two stand out for the scale and urgency of their challenges: Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. By 2030, these two countries alone are projected to host one in every four people living in extreme poverty globally (Figure 2). This staggering concentration underscores a crucial point: global poverty reduction target cannot be reached without progress in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Success in these two nations will shape global poverty outcomes in the decades to come.
Figure 2. By 2030, fragile countries in SSA region will host half of the global poor with one quarter of them concentrated in just two countries: Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Poverty in Fragile Settings Is Deep, Multidimensional, and Persistent
Fragility does not just reduce income; it undermines human development across generations. Even in countries that have transitioned out of fragility, the scars remain deep.
In FCS countries, about 35 percent of children under the age of five are stunted – compared to 22 percent in non-fragile contexts. Education systems are weak: children in FCS settings receive just five learning-adjusted years of schooling, versus nine years in stable countries. They also perform consistently worse on standardized tests.
As they grow, young people in FCS face poor job prospects. Despite high labor force participation, the majority of employment in fragile contexts is informal and vulnerable. Over 60 percent of workers rely on low-productivity jobs—unpaid family work, self-employment, or other precarious activities. Infrastructure gaps make matters worse. In FCS countries, only half the population has access to electricity or the internet, further excluding people from markets, services, and digital opportunities.
With weak governance and limited capacity to deliver essential services in FCS countries, fragility and poverty become a trap—one that is difficult to escape, even as peace returns or crises subside.
There’s No Path to Ending Poverty Without Tackling Fragility
The message is clear: the future of global poverty progress is a fragile one.
At the current pace, the prospects for reducing poverty in FCS countries beyond 2030 remain bleak. Even for the most optimistic scenarios—where FCS countries achieve 4 percent annual economic growth per capita or implement effective redistributive policies— extreme poverty would still affect around 24 percent of the population in FCS by the middle of the century. This is a stark warning that business-as-usual approaches will not suffice.
The year 2024 marks a critical turning point—poverty is increasingly concentrated in places where institutions are the most challenged and recovery is most difficult. This must be the focus of the global development agenda moving forward. Because poverty cannot be eradicated if we do not confront fragility—strategically, and urgently.
Source : World Bank
